Friday, November 30, 2012

Survivorship bias


Survivorship bias: (ref en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias) A type of selection bias.  It is a logical falacy used in argumentation or explanation (ref: read-weep.com/#!/episode.php/the-secret) the (false) explanation for good performance.  It is the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that "survived" some process and inadvertently overlooking those that didn't because of their lack of visibility. This can lead to false conclusions in several different ways. The survivors may literally be people, as in a medical study, or could be companies or research subjects or applicants for a job, or anything that must make it past some selection process to be considered further.  Example: Survivorship bias can lead to overly optimistic beliefs because failures are ignored, such as when companies that no longer exist are excluded from analyses of financial performance.

History is written by the victors.

Relationship to the Anthropic Principle.

This is a work in progress.